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SCENARIOS FOR 2040 CHARTING THE FUTURE AMID UNCERTAINTY
110 | RENAISSANCE OF DEMOCRACIES
112 | AWORLDADRIFT
114 | COMPETITIVE COEXISTENCE
116 | SEPARATESILOS
118 | TRAGEDYANDMOBILIZATION
The report presented several archetypal future scenarios that represent distinct pathways for global developments out to the next 20 years. However, because the world regularly twists and turns in surprising ways, none of these outcomes are predetermined. The choices people make—individually and collectively, whether by intent or chance—will remain the biggest variables driving the course of events.
Develop an alternative creative scenario, by critically thinking about the future in the lights of the information you gathered throughout the course and your increased awareness of the big picture. Evaluate the presented scenarios in the above mentioned report to pick an existing scenario to build on or challenge its current planning assumptions by coming up with an original scenario of your own. Keep in mind that these scenarios, and the challenges and opportunities they represent, are not necessarily mutually exclusive. The future will probably include elements from each, but at different levels of intensity or in different regions of the world.
Write an essay that clearly explains your future world scenario considering the global trends we studied throughout the course: demographic, economic, social, technological, environmental, and political. As good scenarios are far more art than science, try to provide strong rational based on current evidence from the assigned readings to make your predictions grounded enough to feel plausible, while imaginative enough to challenge current assumptions.
Note: Use the assigned reading materials in the course as your primary source of information and citation. Keep the use of outside sources to a minimum.
Format your paper using the following guidelines:
1,000 words (3 pages) length.
12-point Times New Roman font.
Double line spacing.
1-inch margins.
Use the following paragraph layout for your final paper:
Include a clear introductory paragraph, body paragraphs, and a concluding paragraph that flow together.
The first paragraph should clearly state your argument and a summary of the main reasons for your argument.
In the body paragraphs, you should expand on the reasons for your position and provide more detail or evidence as needed.
The final paragraph should be a concluding paragraph in which you restate your argument and the main reasons for your position.
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Sample structure: Here is an example of a paper structure that you might find helpful:
A. Thesis and Introduction: Which of the future world scenarios presented in the readings I think will be happening in the next 15-20 years? (If none resembles your vision, present a new model of your own creation and give it an original name. It can have aspect from the available scenarios too).
B. Body: Based on the readings throughout the semester, how do I imagine this world scenario to look like from the following aspects/What are the evidences from the readings to support my vision?
1. Demographic: Based on reading the demographic trends happening now, I think the future world’s demographic will be…. (add your thoughts)
2. Economic: Based on reading the economic trends happening now, I think the future world economically will be….(add your thoughts)
3. Technological: Based on reading the technological trends happening now, I think the future world technologically will be….(add your thoughts)
4. Social Trends: Based on reading the social trends happening now, I think the future world socially will be….(add your thoughts)
5. Environmental Trends: Based on reading the environmental trends happening now, I think the future world’s environment will be….(add your thoughts)
6. Political: Based on reading the political trends happening now, I think the future world politically will be….(add your thoughts)
C. Conclusion: Based on all the above evidence, I think my thesis is correct and the future world scenario I predict is plausible.
D. References: List your sources as it is part of your grade.
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